new Delhi. Domestic rating agency Icra has revised the estimate of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) decline further in the current financial year. According to this, GDP may fall by 9.5 percent in 2020-21 as against a 5 percent decline earlier. The ratings agency says business activity that began in May and June has been affected by the continued 'lockdown' in some states. Most analysts estimate that the country's GDP may fall by 5 to 6.5 percent.
Icra said in a report, "We have revised downward estimates of India's GDP (at constant prices 2011-12). Under this, it may fall by 9.5 per cent whereas earlier we had predicted a fall of 5 per cent. In view of the increasing cases of Kovid-19 infection, an initial recovery seen in May-June, 2020 from 'lockdown' in some states and cities is being adversely affected. "According to the report, the country's economy 2020 The first quarter of -21 could see a big drop of 25 percent. There may be some mild improvement after that. It may fall by 12.4 percent and 2.3 percent respectively in the second and third quarters. 1.3 percent growth is projected in the fourth quarter.
ICRA Principal Economist Aditi Nair said that the Indian economy had begun to come out of the harsh experience of a tightly imposed 'lockdown' in April 2020. In many areas it was seen that they were adjusting themselves with the new system. However, in view of the increasing cases of Kovid-19, the 'lockdown' has been resumed locally in many states, he said. This may adversely affect the revival. Nair said, "Given the severity of the epidemic and the duration of safeguards to prevent it, we estimate that there will be a big fall in the second quarter of the current financial year as compared to the earlier estimate." That the 'lockdown' in many areas and the easing of the situation in many areas and the difference in demand and supply of labor, is affecting the supply system and consumption pattern. '
This post was published on July 16, 2020 8:15 pm
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