new Delhi. Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service has estimated the size of the Indian economy to decline by 3.1 per cent in 2020. The agency also feared a change in geographical conditions in Asia due to tensions at the border between India and China. Earlier Moody's in April had projected a 0.2 percent increase in India's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. The agency has now revised its estimate of the impact of the corona virus epidemic. However, Moody's believes that after 2021, the Indian economy will rebound rapidly and may register a growth rate of 6.9 percent.
Moody's said in its June update of the Global Macro Outlook (2020-21) that it revised the 2020 growth forecast for India as the data showed the impact of disruptions caused by the corona virus epidemic in the January-March and April-June quarters. Is being detected He said, "The April-June quarter of 2020 will be recorded in history as the worst quarter for the global economy since at least World War II. We continue to expect a gradual return in the second half of the year, but this outcome will depend on whether governments can reopen their economies while protecting public health. "
Moody's has estimated that China will be the only G-20 country to record growth this year. The agency expects China to grow at a rate of one per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021 thereafter. He said, "Asian countries are particularly sensitive to changes in geopolitical dynamics. Increasing tensions between China and some countries along the border of the South China Sea and skirmishes along the border with India indicate that for the entire region Geopolitical risks are increasing. ''
Moody's expects the G-20 economy to fall by 4.6 percent in 2020, followed by 5.2 percent in 2021. Moody's had lowered India's credit rating by a notch earlier this month to 'BAA3'. This is the lowest rating category investable.
This post was published on June 22, 2020 11:12 pm
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